The PokerStars European Poker Tour sees among the greatest poker gamers all over the world battle it out on the felt, particularly when an action-packer high-roller providing is on the schedule.
Within the newest GTO Wizard Hand Evaluation, we study an enthralling hand between Ognyan Dimov and Steve O’Dwyer, by which the previous tried an formidable triple-barrel bluff.
The Hand
Early on in Day 2 of the $50,000 Tremendous Excessive Curler at EPT Cyprus, Ognyan Dimov took an fascinating line in a three-bet pot in opposition to Steve O’Dwyer within the largest buy-in occasion of the sequence. O’Dwyer was the efficient stack, beginning the hand with round 50 massive blinds and placed on his hero-calling cape in a hand that raised just a few eyebrows on the desk
Degree 9 : Blinds 3,000/6,000, 6,000 ante
Dimov raised from underneath the gun and known as when O’Dwyer three-bet to 45,000 from the button.
Dimov opted to not play in circulation and led out for 22,000 on the 7♠6♣5♠ flop. O’Dwyer known as.
Dimov sized as much as 65,000 on the Q♠ flip, and once more O’Dwyer caught round. The J♠ river put four-to-a-flush on the board and Dimov fired a 3rd barrel of 75,000. O’Dwyer used a number of time banks whereas mulling over choices, finally selecting a name.
Dimov was bluffing with A♦3♦, and O’Dwyer tabled Ok♥Ok♦ for a pair of kings to take the pot.
PokerNews caught the hand when motion was on the river. O’Dwyer relayed the preflop, flop and switch motion to the dwell reporting staff.
GTO Wizard Hand Evaluation
Flop
Dimov determined to steer on a board that regarded higher for his vary. Trying on the resolution, nevertheless, we discover out that he ought to nearly by no means donk guess. The rationale for that’s easy: half of Dimov’s vary must be medium EQ fingers (A or Ok excessive) that missed the flop and try to achieve showdown.
However when ought to I donk guess?Donk betting would not happen typically, as a result of we’ll often have a number of medium EQ fingers (~50%) that naturally wish to test and attain showdown in a small pot. In these conditions our robust fingers wish to test as properly to help our medium EQ fingers from being overrun by the IP participant.
In conditions the place our total vary is stronger than common and is lacking medium EQ fingers (because of the board hitting our vary properly), there are much less incentives to guard our checking vary as there are much less medium EQ fingers in our vary making an attempt to achieve showdown. Additionally, once we hit the board properly, our opponent will wish to test again extra which can lower the EV of our worth fingers, so we make up for this EV loss by betting ourselves.
O’Dwyer’s resolution to only name vs the 20% pot sized donk guess is normal right here, as there isn’t any incentive to hurry pot development since KK would not require a number of safety. He might jam fingers like JJ and TT for worth as a result of these fingers are susceptible and may nonetheless be known as by worse.
Flip
The Q is a superb card for Dimov because of the abundance of Qx in his vary (assuming fingers like AQ, KQ, QJ, QT guess the flop). He might guess a smaller measurement right here for a excessive frequency as a result of his vary ought to not often miss this board as performed. We adjusted the guess measurement to the one Dimov used (45% of the pot), which is suboptimal however nonetheless inside purpose. His hand A♦3♦ as performed ought to barrel right here attributable to higher Ax folding versus this line.
O’Dwyer’s optimum response is to boost all-in with Ok♠Kx, however with no spade simply calling is the best frequency play right here.
River
The rivered Js is a foul card for Dimov’s vary. Because the bettor, he’s allowed to guess a wider vary than O’Dwyer is allowed to name on earlier streets, due to this fact O’Dwyer’s vary going through two bets has shifted extra in the direction of spades and fingers with showdown worth than Dimov’s vary, giving O’Dwyer a big fairness benefit and limiting Dimov’s bluff allowance.
Because the river is such a foul card for Dimov, he mustn’t solely quit roughly 80% of his bluffs, but additionally play extra passively together with his worth fingers. Ad3d particularly all the time offers up the river.
O’Dwyer’s Ok♥Ok♦ is detached on the river going through the ~40% pot-sized all-in, assuming Dimov bets with a superbly balanced bluff:worth ratio (learn MDF & Alpha for extra context). If Dimov is overbluffing even barely, O’Dwyer can all the time profitably name all his bluff catchers, equivalent to his Ok♥Ok♦. Given Dimov’s overcall preflop and over-aggressing on the flop, O’Dwyer might’ve assumed that it could be troublesome and unlikely for his opponent to wave the white flag 80% of the time on the river, which could have led him to name the river so gentle.
Conclusion
General, we predict that Dimov overestimated the fairness of his vary on the flop, main him to donk guess a spot that shouldn’t permit donk bets. O’Dwyer navigated the hand completely and confirmed his exploitative muscle by appropriately figuring out his opponent’s mistake and making the proper name on the river.
Disclaimer: In accordance with the preflop ICM resolution we ran, Dimov ought to all the time fold A3s preflop to the 3bet since it is a dropping name in idea. Due to this fact, we added A3s at a small frequency to his post-flop vary to see how he ought to play if A3s had been in his vary. This may’ve affected O’Dwyer’s river resolution if he had identified Dimov was overdefending.
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