Within the newest GTO Wizard Hand Evaluation, we dive into a large pot that occurred throughout the 2019 World Collection of Poker (WSOP) Major Occasion. Hossein Ensan clashed with Timothy Su on Day 7 of the match and the outcome was a 116 million-chip pot!
Ensan received the pot earlier than happening to turn into poker’s world champion. Nevertheless, simply because he raked in a mammoth-sized pile of chips doesn’t suggest he or Su performed the hand like a Wizard. Our good pals at GTO Wizard have damaged down the hand, examined equities, and determined if Ensan and Su’s play was GTO Wizard-approved.
Preflop
Ensan raised twice the massive blind from the cutoff with 10♥10♣, and Su determined to bump it as much as 8.5 massive blinds with A♥Q♦. In principle, Su ought to have a polarized three-betting vary right here primarily consisting of offsuit broadways, equivalent to Kx10x and AxQx, and so on, and suited air like Ok♥7♥, Q♦8♦, and so on, as bluffs, and TT+, AJs+ for worth. Ensan ought to name with most of his vary, and solely four-bet with pocket aces and bluffs.
Since each gamers have the biggest stacks on the desk, there’s much less incentive to play massive pots towards one another, as each gamers have already got secured a great spot, and risking it to win barely extra is just not definitely worth the reward. This is the reason Su ought to typically name quite a lot of premium palms and why Ensan ought to solely fou-bet with the nuts or nothing.
We defined this idea in additional element in our evaluation of the hand between Korzinin and Greenwood.
Each gamers performed their palms completely normal preflop, so let’s proceed with the flop evaluation.
GTO Wizard Evaluation
Flop
The seller fanned the Q♥10♠7♦ flop, and Su guess his AQ for roughly one-third of the pot. Ensan simply known as together with his set, which is pretty normal as effectively.
Su needs to be betting excessive frequency (~77%) for a small dimension with most of his palms since round two-thirds of his vary has at the very least a draw or higher.
Ensan, then again, has a choice right here; he can both “click on it again” and double his opponent’s guess at a ten% frequency, primarily with good prime pair or higher attracts. Particularly, with units, he ought to increase round one-third of the time.
Flip
The flip was the 7♠, enhancing Ensan to a full home. On the flip, Su determined to slow-play together with his top-pair prime kicker. Curiously, Ensan additionally slow-played his full home and checked again. Let’s see if there’s any benefit to slow-playing right here.
First issues first: The 7♠ is a comparatively impartial card, and though Ensan makes barely extra journeys than Su right here, it’s extra favorable for Su due to the excessive density of fine worth palms in his vary, which retain their fairness on this card.
Since Su retains his benefit in fairness on the flip, he ought to proceed betting comparatively typically (~57%) with a small dimension inside his vary. Except he holds precisely ace-jack, most of his palms can guess, together with any pair (even under-pairs) and attracts. Prime pair prime kicker ought to guess round two-thirds of the time right here, with A♥Q♦ particularly, mixing each choices near 50/50. Effectively performed!
Ensan, when checked to, ought to slow-play his full homes typically right here as a result of Su continues to be uncapped as he has the nuts nonetheless in his vary, and, as we noticed, the flip doesn’t assist his vary all that a lot. Pocket tens ought to test half of the time right here and select a half-pot guess at any time when it bets.
GTO Wizard: How one can Play Pocket Jacks
River
After each gamers had checked the flip, Su threw a roughly two-thirds pot guess at Ensan together with his prime pair when the 6♥ accomplished the board. Ensan responded with a increase virtually thrice the scale of Su’s guess. Su went into the tank for 5 minutes earlier than reemerging with a name.
Time ran out for gradual enjoying, so betting AQ all the time for round two-thirds of the pot is the optimum play right here for Su. He can nonetheless slow-play palms that wish to go for all the cookies by check-raising. Checking a hand like AQ that may go for worth however can’t check-raise wouldn’t make a lot sense right here, because it’s the final road earlier than the showdown.
Ensan’s resolution to lift roughly thrice as a substitute of all-in for 5 instances is attention-grabbing. If the solver is given the choice to lift 3x and 5x, the 5x increase is simply hardly ever chosen (see under), which we subsequently deem a redundant increase dimension. He shouldn’t lose any EV through the use of that dimension, however for his total vary, it appears pointless and doesn’t add worth to the technique. Bluff candidates for his line can be palms with first rate blockers to Su’s finest palms, like suited queen-eight or ten-nine.
Su’s ace-queen going through the river increase is detached to calling and folding. The answer suggests folding roughly 40% of his bluff-catchers (together with AQ) to make Ensan’s bluffs detached to betting or giving up. If Su would barely overfold, Ensan’s bluffs would turn into worthwhile and vice versa.
Conclusion: Are they Wizards in spite of everything?
As we noticed, each gamers did very effectively on all streets and it’s clear they perceive easy methods to play their worth palms through the use of acceptable sizes. Ensan may’ve raised the river bigger with the intention to use a dimension that’s constant together with his worth palms, however that is simply nitpicking.
Total we noticed a robust efficiency by each gamers, navigating the post-flop streets with ease. GTO Wizard undoubtedly approves!
Hand evaluation supplied by Sotos in collaboration with GTO Wizard
Matthew Pitt
Senior Editor
