A jaw-dropping $2.2 million five-bet pot performed out on Hustler On line casino Dwell in 2024, that includes an sudden conflict between Wesley and LSG Hank.
In one of many greatest palms within the present’s historical past, Wesley discovered himself all-in holding A♥7♥ towards Hank’s Q♦Q♣. Was this an overzealous bluff preflop, or did Wesley faucet into high-level Recreation Principle Optimum (GTO) technique?
Fortunately, the consultants at GTO Wizard have the reply. Let’s break down the hand and see if each gamers performed optimally—or if somebody made a pricey mistake.
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Preflop: Wesley Fires Again with a Mild 5-Wager
Wesley three-bet his A♥7♥ to $15,000 over LSG Hank’s $3,000 open with Q♦Q♣. Hank responded with a four-bet to $50,000, and Wesley determined to fireplace again with a five-bet increase to $130,000, which Hank referred to as.
Apparently, GTO Wizard means that at 1,100 huge blind stack depths, suited Aces like A♥7♥ steadily seem as five-bet bluffs. The deeper the stacks, the extra necessary it turns into to dam an Ace, because the opponent’s persevering with vary is extra weighted towards robust Ace-high palms.
One other key issue is postflop playability. When enjoying this deep, making the nuts turns into essential, and suited Aces have that potential. Wesley’s five-bet serves two functions:
It pressures Hank into folding palms like AxQx and AxKx that dominate him.If referred to as, he nonetheless has fairness towards KxKx and QxQx.
How Ought to Hank Defend?
Hank ought to both name or fold on this scenario, avoiding a six-bet. Wesley’s vary is already extremely polarized, representing both pocket Aces or bluffs. Due to this, palms like KxKx and QxQx will not be robust sufficient to six-bet for worth.
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Flop: Wesley C-Bets Small, Hank Calls
The flop fell 10♦7♦6♣. Wesley continued with an $80,000 guess right into a $266,000 pot, and Hank referred to as together with his Q♦Q♣.
In accordance with GTO Wizard, Wesley ought to guess his total vary for a small dimension (about one-third of the pot). Why? His vary incorporates considerably extra palms that may comfortably stack off (specifically, AxAx).
Hank’s Dilemma With Queens
Queens with out a backdoor flush draw ought to principally fold at equilibrium, as Wesley’s vary is so robust that he’ll preserve barreling steadily on later streets. As an alternative, Hank may contemplate elevating the flop as a bluff, doubtlessly forcing Wesley off palms like KxKx or QxQx whereas additionally getting referred to as by worse sometimes.
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Flip: The Board Pairs, Wesley Will increase the Stress
The flip introduced the 7♠, pairing the board and giving Wesley journey sevens. Wesley fired one other guess of $325,000 right into a $427,000 pot, and Hank, after tanking, referred to as.
Whereas Wesley’s guess was logical with journeys, the solver suggests a barely smaller sizing. As an alternative of a 75% pot guess, a geometrical guess dimension would have been most well-liked.
Hank’s name was shut. Even GTO technique folds QxQx half the time right here as a result of sheer power of Wesley’s betting vary. Extra interesting palms to proceed with embrace A♦Ok♦ or a hand like 10x, which has extra outs to enhance.
What Is Geometric Betting?
A geometrical guess dimension maintains the identical fraction of the pot throughout a number of streets. On this case, betting 64% of the pot on each flip and river would have been excellent. This strategy ensures:
Most theoretical strain on Hank.Essentially the most environment friendly technique to get stacks in by the river.
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River: Wesley Jams
The river was the 5♦, finishing a possible flush. Wesley rapidly moved all-in for $584,000 right into a $1.1 million pot. Hank tanked for 5 minutes earlier than making the decision, solely to see the unhealthy information.
Hank’s Q♦Q♣ was in a basic indifference spot. When a name is neither shedding nor getting cash, it signifies that the opponent’s betting vary is completely balanced between worth palms and bluffs. Since Wesley’s jam gave Hank pot odds of roughly 3-to-1, Hank wanted to win about 25% of the time for a worthwhile name.
If Wesley bluffs greater than 25% of the time, Hank ought to all the time name together with his bluff-catchers. Conversely, if Hank folds too typically, Wesley can begin bluffing much more profitably. This delicate stability is the essence of GTO play.
If you wish to learn extra about these ideas, please go to the GTO Wizard weblog article: MDF & Alpha.
Conclusion: A Surprisingly GTO Hand
Wesley’s aggressive five-bet with A♥7♥ turned out to be the proper GTO play, making use of most strain preflop. His flip guess dimension may have been barely smaller, however total, he executed the hand nicely. Hank additionally made a sound river name given his pot odds, regardless that it didn’t work out this time.
An interesting hand—unexpectedly, each gamers performed it fairly near GTO!
