Day 4 of March’s PokerStars Open Campione Foremost Occasion noticed 118 gamers chasing a slice of the almost €2 million nonetheless up for grabs. The sector had been whittled down from 2,423 hopefuls, as every remaining participant eyed up the title.
Amid the chaos, one wild hand stood out. A postflop five-bet jam that left some onlookers scratching their heads. Was it a punt, or was it GTO-approved brilliance?
Let’s dive into the hand, break it down with GTO Wizard, and see whether or not Marc Fischer’s line was justified or only a brutal cooler.
Hand Historical past Quickplay
Area Remaining: 5 % leftAverage stack: 51 bbMarc Fischer 62 bb (HJ): Okay♥9♥Eugenio Sanchioni 91 bb (BB): J♥J♣
Flop: J♠9♠9♣ — Fischer flopped journeys; Sanchioni flopped a full home.
Motion escalated rapidly, and each gamers piled within the chips. Fischer 5‑guess jammed the flop and was snap‑known as, drawing to at least one out for his match life.
Was this an overplay? Or only a brutal setup? Let’s break it down.
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Preflop
With ICM strain average and no speedy pay jumps, gamers have been incentivised to play for a deep run slightly than fold their means up the ladder.
Bubble elements:
BB (Sanchioni): 1.12HJ (Fischer): 1.17
A bubble issue of 1.17 means busting prices 17% extra ICM worth than the achieve from doubling up. Nonetheless, with each gamers above common in chips, there’s room for calculated aggression.
Fischer opens the hijack with Okay♥9♥, a regular and GTO-approved open.
Sanchioni, the chip chief, flat-calls with J♥J♣, which is a advantageous, balanced choice. Each preflop traces are strong and solver-approved.
Flop
Sanchioni flops a full home on J♠9♠9♣ whereas Fischer hits journeys. Fisher vs Fishhooks, and the inevitable cooler ensues.
Motion Explodes
Sanchioni checksFischer continuation bets 25,000 (2.08bb)Sanchioni check-raises to 65,000 (5.42bb)Fischer fires again with a three-bet to 160,000 (13.33bb)Sanchioni bumps it up with a four-bet to 260,000 (21.66bb)Fischer five-bet jams and Sanchioni snap-calls together with his boatFisher misses his one-outer and busts the Foremost Occasion.
Play by Play Breakdown
Right here’s the GTO Wizard AI answer if you wish to observe alongside.
Sanchioni checks: GTO Accredited ✓
Though there are some flops the place the chip chief can lead out, this can be a board the place they need to largely verify to the preflop aggressor.
Fischer continuation bets 25,000 (2.08bb): GTO Accredited ✓
It is a advantageous spot to guess. It ought to be famous that the solver is taking part in this spot a bit passively as a consequence of Fischer’s bigger c-bet dimension (a min-bet can be higher), and since he’s coated. Though he can slow-play, a high-frequency c-bet is preferable with most journeys.
As a heuristic for choosing slow-plays, purpose for arms that don’t achieve a lot from producing folds, and are much less weak on future streets. An instance of a great sluggish play right here can be AxAx with a spade.
Sanchioni check-raises to 65,000 (5.42bb): GTO Accredited ✓
The large blind ought to mount an aggressive defence right here. Paired boards particularly demand aggressive check-raising defences. Because the chip chief, Sanchioni may be much more aggressive. Right here, we see the solver check-raising over 20% of its vary, and JxJx isn’t any exception.
Fischer fires again with a three-bet to 160,000 (13.33bb): GTO Accredited ✓
That is the primary transfer that’s even barely questionable. Up to now, the whole lot has been performed completely.
Right here we see Fischer fireplace again with a three-bet. It is a considerably stunning technique, since most gamers don’t three-bet a lot of something right here. You’ll be able to see the GTO answer three-bets solely 2.6% of the time in whole, and about 7% of the time with this explicit hand.
Maybe Fischer thought that Sanchoni was check-raising too aggressively on this spot. Nonetheless, it’s arduous to be much more aggressive than the above answer. Because the coated participant, particularly in place, you need to usually flat as an alternative of reopening the motion. Nonetheless, GTO does three-bet typically, and this hand is likely one of the chosen few.
Sanchioni escalates with a four-bet to 260,000 (21.66bb): GTO Accredited ✓
As soon as Fischer reopens the motion, most of Sanchioni’s sturdy arms are blissful to maintain constructing the pot.
It ought to be famous that, in concept, the out-of-position participant typically prefers shorter stacks because it decreases their positional drawback. Though within the case of JxJx, this hand simply needs to receives a commission.
Fischer five-bet jams: GTO Accredited ✓
At this level, Okay♥9♥ now not feels comfy. A great participant will realise right here that there’s a great likelihood they’re behind. In truth, GTO Wizard places king-nine at about 64% fairness dealing with this four-bet.
And it’s not the comfy, ‘oh, I have to fade some outs’ type of 65%. It’s the uncomfortable, you’re both up in opposition to a ship, draw, or one other journeys type of 64%. It’s not a enjoyable spot for king-nine. Whether or not or not Fischer felt that is still to be seen.
Regardless, as soon as Fischer has three-bet, he is just about dedicated to this hand. It’s nearly unimaginable to justify folding journeys at this stack-to-pot ratio (SPR). Though the solver recommends calling greater than jamming, calling usually finally ends up getting stacks in later.
So sure, this jam is GTO-approved. It’s too late to again out now; he’s gotta commit, rattling the results.
Sanchioni snap-calls: GTO Accredited ✓
That is an absolute dream spot for Sanchioni. He went in with a large stack, flopped the nuts, and his massive stacked opponent instantly dedicated all of their chips. What a stunning spot for the massive blind, and an absolute nightmare for hijack. We will see right here that Sanchioni’s $EV with jacks is +€16k (relative to folding).
Might Fischer Have Gotten Away?
Technically, sure. A extra passive flop line (simply calling the check-raise) may delay the motion and open up the opportunity of folding later. However that’s hindsight speaking.
The extra essential fact? This hand is probably going going broke in most traces. Fischer’s aggressive line would possibly even be optimum in an exploitative sense.
Verdict
That is the definition of a cooler. Each gamers performed GTO-approved traces. Fischer’s jam commits him, and Sanchioni capitalises completely. Generally, you simply hit the second-best hand on the flawed board.
Written by Tombos21 for GTO Wizard.
