With regards to high-level poker, the most effective gamers constantly discover alternatives that go away the remainder of us scratching our head.
Step ahead Niklas Astedt, whose runner-up end within the EPT Prague €50,000 Tremendous Excessive Curler was notable for a hand in opposition to eventual champion Thomas Santerne, with Astedt betting with third pair, getting paid by his French opponent AND being good.
Right here GTO Wizard takes a more in-depth have a look at the hand to judge the Swede’s daring river technique.
GTO Wizard: The best way to Play Pocket Jacks
The Hand
With seven gamers left and solely 5 locations paid, each Astedt and Santerne have been battling for the chip lead when the hand occurred.
Blind-on-blind, Santerne and Astedt checked the Ok♦J♣2♦ flop and Q♥ flip with the river the 9♥. Santerne checked and Astedt put out a guess of 20,000 with round 36,000 within the center.
Santerne known as however mucked when Astedt confirmed J♠8♥ for third pair, inflicting tablemate Sam Grafton to exclaim “What simply occurred!”
“He is aware of me,” stated Santerne.
The Evaluation
Astedt went for a paper-thin worth guess on the river with third pair no kicker on a four-to-straight runout that stunned even high-stakes participant Sam Grafton. Absolutely this could’t be proper….or is it? Earlier than the river, there’s little to speak about, so let’s take a deeper have a look at Astedt’s optimum river technique to judge his play:
How extensive ought to Astedt guess for worth on the river in GTO land?
The primary issue we have to take into account is how free his worth betting threshold is on this spot. It’s clear that Astedt deviated from GTO and shouldn’t go thinner for worth than second pair right here.
Though second pair should still appear a bit skinny, his opponent Asterne missed three alternatives to guess for worth, which implies there received’t be a lot in his vary left that beats Astedt’s second pairs other than the occasional slowplayed straight.
Third pair nonetheless doesn’t get calls by sufficient worse to justify a worth guess.
By betting his second pairs on the river, Astedt can get known as by a 3rd pair, fourth pair, and A excessive. If his opponent doesn’t defend with these palms sufficient, Astedt might overbluff this spot and achieve additional EV by exploiting his opponent.
Nonetheless, Asterne known as and nonetheless misplaced to Astedt’s sudden third pair. Santerne’s utterance of “He is aware of me” after listening to Grafton’s astonishment concerning Astedt’s option to worth guess so skinny might point out that Asterne might have the tendency to overcall these spots, and Astedt seemingly attacked his leak, being conscious of his tendencies.
Was Astedt’s river guess a superb exploit?
Right here we see the anticipated achieve of betting and checking Js8h assuming each gamers are enjoying good GTO.
Surprisingly, the EV lack of betting third pair is minimal, even when his opponent would play completely. This means that his opponent doesn’t have to deviate a lot for betting J8 to grow to be higher than checking.On this simulation, we locked Asterne’s first river resolution to be according to GTO however then pressured him to boost 2% much less typically and name 2% extra typically as an alternative (in comparison with the GTO baseline) when going through a guess of roughly half pot.
That is what the EV of Js8h seems like after making use of node locks to Asterne’s technique:
We are able to now comfortably guess third pair right here for skinny worth, though betting is simply barely higher than checking (assuming Asterne nonetheless often finds the fold button). If Asterne by no means folds a weaker pair, it could be a blunder for Astedt to not guess his hand.
Conclusion
The extent at which these guys are enjoying is world-class! GTO Wizard’s evaluation, it’s evident that Astedt is able to squeezing even the final drop of worth out of his opponents and isn’t afraid of creating extraordinarily skinny worth bets in place. One other amazingly performed hand by a high MTT reg.
Hand evaluation offered by Sotos in collaboration with GTO Wizard
Will Shillibier
Managing Editor
