Joey Ingram Analyzes Brian Okin’s Venetian Tank-Fold with GTO Wizard

Everybody desires to be a hero, and in a single current hand on the brand new Venetian Poker Reside stream, it might have been Brian Okin.

He folded journey eights in what might have been a $100,000 chip pot, believing that his opponent Dr. Phil — no, not that one — might by no means be bluffing.

One one that’s by no means afraid to chime in on social media in regards to the newest poker discourse is GTO Wizard Ambassador Joey Ingram, who posted an in depth video on X utilizing GTO Wizard’s solvers to gauge what Okin ought to have completed on this situation.

The Hand

Allow us to remind you if you have not seen the hand but. The blinds have been $100/$200 with a $200 massive blind ante within the model new Venetian Poker Reside studio.

With a $400 straddle dwell, Dr. Phil opened to $1,400 with Okin defending his massive blind. The flop got here 8♦8♠Okay♣. Dr. Phil guess $1,500 right into a pot of $5,200, having flopped high pair, and Brian raised to $4,500 along with his journeys. Dr. Phil then three-bet to $16,500 and Brian known as.

The flip was the three♣ and Dr. Phil shoved for $35,100 or round pot. Brian sat with $61,400 behind. He in the end tank-folded and was proven the ace-king.

“Oh, I am so dangerous! Wow, I’ll get roasted for that one,” mentioned Brian. “I folded an eight.”

GTO Wizard: Understanding Blockers in Poker

Operating the Simulation

Ingram says when operating the simulation, deciding what vary Dr. Phil is elevating with on the flop is a very powerful factor.

“If he is a extra GTO sort of participant,” he explains. “He’ll have some journeys and among the robust fingers like full homes. However [GTO players] will even have their backside of the vary bluffs — sometimes, your backdoor straight and flush draw fingers.”

In line with Ingram, towards this vary, Okin has a straightforward name on the flop. Nevertheless, the flip is far more depending on coming to a extra concrete conclusion of what your opponent has and what they’re transferring all in with.

“For instance, hypothetically,” continues Ingram. “On the flop, they raised the broader vary; would they all the time bluff these fingers right here on the flip?”

Ingram says there are many issues to ask your self. Would your opponent shove flush attracts whereas checking different fingers? And what does the underside of their vary appear like? Is it nut-flush attracts, or is it fingers that embody the nut-flush blocker?

“Greatest fingers are going to be the eights,” says Ingram. “And full homes with pocket kings. That is a giant query — how typically are they betting kings on this flip?”

So what ought to Okin do? In line with GTO Wizard, the choice is a slam-dunk name.

Altering the Parameters

Ingram says that when he requested Okin what he thought Dr. Phil had, he mentioned he did not assume he was ever bluffing and did not imagine he had fingers just like the flush draw semi-bluffs. Due to this fact, in one other simulation, Ingram says he tweaked the parameters.

“For instance this man is rarely bluffing with a flush draw. He solely bets the flip with worth. He would not have any backside of the vary in any respect. It is full homes and higher eights.”

In opposition to that tight vary, you’ll be able to really see 8♣4♣ is a fold 81.9% of the time.

Ingram additionally posed two additional questions that have an effect on the numbers:

How typically does he have aces?How typically does he have ace-king?

Utilizing the GTO Wizard nodelocking characteristic, and saying that Dr. Phil shoves his aces on the flip an extra 10% of the time, 8♣4♣ turns into extra prone to name. And in the event that they guess aces 50% of the time on the flip, then it actually issues.

“Simply by bumping up that one hand, and now it is really at 45.4% name,” says Ingram, who then used the GTO Wizard software program so as to add in increasingly fingers to point out you are an enormous favorite towards gamers who’re over-valuing ace-king and has flush attracts in that spot.

“It actually comes all the way down to how lengthy they’ve aces and flush attracts,” he concludes. “The extra they’ve these fingers the extra you’ll be able to by no means fold. The much less they’ve, the extra you’ll be able to fold.”

Watch the total second episode of Venetian Poker Reside under.

Based mostly in the UK, Will began working for PokerNews as a contract dwell reporter in 2015 and joined the full-time workers in 2019. He now works as Managing Editor.

He graduated from the College of Kent in 2017 with a B.A. in German. He additionally holds an NCTJ Diploma in Sports activities Journalism.