It was set to be the story of the summer season, with Kristen Foxen deep within the largest WSOP Principal Occasion of all time. Nonetheless, it wasn’t to be as she fell simply in need of a historic place on the ultimate desk, busting in thirteenth place for $600,000.
In her ultimate hand, she turned her second pair and gutshot straight draw right into a bluff — a really fascinating and superior play from a participant who had informed PokerNews earlier within the event that taking part in on the PokerGO Studio had helped her hone her poker technique abilities, and put together her for a deep run within the Principal Occasion.
However was the flip shove really GTO? We spoke with GTO Wizard to see if they will share some perception with the most recent GTO Wizard Hand Evaluation.
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The Hand
Based on the PokerNews reporting, Joe Serock opened to 2,400,000 from below the gun and Kristen Foxen referred to as from the massive blind. Foxen check-called a wager of 4,000,000 on the A♥Ok♥J♠flop and the flip was the 5♠.
Serock sized as much as 11,600,000 and Foxen then check-raised all in for 36,900,000. Serock took off his sun shades, picked up his playing cards, and referred to as to place her in danger.
Kristen Foxen: Ok♠Q♦Joe Serock: A♠Ok♣
Foxen might nonetheless hit a ten for a straight, however the 6♥ river bricked, and he or she was eradicated.
GTO Wizard Assessment
Preliminary Evaluation
Based on GTO Wizard, upon nearer inspection, we will see that KQo all the time folds. Based on GTO Wizard, Foxen’s GTO technique dealing with the double barrel on the flip was as follows, accounting for ICM.
To know why KQ doesn’t increase, we have to first perceive what makes a very good bluff jam:
We have to be certain that we are sometimes behind for our bluff to be efficientWe must get sufficient folds by higher handsOur bluffs ought to have some fairness AFTER villain callsOur bluffs ought to unblock villain’s folds
Let’s break every of those down:
Signal as much as GTO Wizard
Guarantee We Are Behind
To ensure that our bluff to be environment friendly, we have to be certain that once we are elevating with a polarized vary — “nuts or nothing” — we would like our bluffs to have low fairness as demonstrated within the Breakdown tab (see crimson bars).
We principally have a tie with ~50% fairness, so we aren’t behind towards Serock’s betting vary.
Get Sufficient Folds From Higher Fingers
Serock ought to fold worse vs. Foxen’s play. Jamming the flip folds out palms equivalent to Qx, Jx, some Ax and pocket pairs with no set.Most of those palms we’re forward of when holding KsQd, so we don’t fold out a lot better palms.
That is how Serock ought to defend towards the all-in:
Make Positive We Have Some Fairness
Even when we had been to be referred to as, our improvability isn’t trying good both; straights aren’t as sturdy on 4 liners. We typically break up the pot once we hit our straight with Ok♠Q♦.
Combodraws like Q♥7♥ or 10♥8♥ are a lot better to make this play with. The benefit these palms have over Okâ™ Q♦ is that they’ve extra reside outs when Serock calls, in addition to folding out extra higher palms.
Unblock Villain’s Folds
Our opponent needs to be wager/folding loads of Qx gutshots with no coronary heart (QxQx, QxJx in addition to Q9s-Q7s), which we’re blocking a big a part of with the Q♦. Though much less vital of an element on this hand, it’s nonetheless price mentioning.
Conclusion
Whereas Serock had a straightforward time along with his selections on this hand, Foxen had a tricky final hand within the WSOP Principal 2024 which ended up being a expensive blunder. Based on our estimates utilizing the Evaluate EV device, her all-in prices a whopping -$67,788.48 on common in principle.
Nonetheless, this play took loads of guts so we gotta hand it to her being fearless on the desk and having the center to tug off such a power-move.
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