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On this hand from a latest recreation two gamers — Evan and Zeb — get into an attention-grabbing spot, with Evan going through a troublesome determination on the river, folding his straight in opposition to Zeb’s full home.
GTO Wizard takes a better have a look at the motion to investigate every part of the hand. From the preflop determination to open with 98o to the postflop play and the ultimate river fold, GTO Wizard examines the strategic selections made by each gamers.
By breaking down the important thing moments, they provide insights into how GTO methods might be utilized on this scenario, offering a deeper understanding of poker decision-making.
Preflop
Within the hand, Evan raised to £25 from early place with 9♦8♥ and was three-bet by a participant often called Zeb on the button. Zeb raised to £75 with Q♠Q♦ and Evan referred to as.
Sadly, opening a weak hand in an early place akin to Evan’s will not be a GTO play as a result of there are 5 gamers but to behave, which dramatically decreases the likelihood of profitable the hand. The weakest related off-suit hand that ought to be raised from UTG +2 in a giant blind ante recreation is Jx10x offsuit, though solely at round 50% frequency.
Zeb’s Queens, then again, might be both referred to as the vast majority of the time or three-bet typically, so it received’t be attainable for Zeb to make a mistake right here except he folds pre-flop, which might be absurd.
We’ll proceed the evaluation going ahead, assuming that Evan calls the 3-bet at a low frequency with 98o+ so as to see how Evan ought to’ve performed his hand postflop as performed.
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The Flop
Each gamers went to a flop of Q♥7♠5♦ which is favorable board for Zeb’s vary. Zeb determined to c-bet £35, a small 20% of the pot, and Evan took a second earlier than calling.
Whereas betting such a small dimension will not be removed from optimum, sizing as much as half-pot fits Zeb’s vary a lot better. The explanation for that pertains to the truth that Zeb must three-bet preflop polarized, which might imply that almost all of his worth fingers are extraordinarily robust and his bluffs extraordinarily weak.
As a result of Zeb guess a small dimension, Evan ought to now check-raise to round 4x Zeb’s guess pretty typically (22.7% of the time on common) to disclaim Zeb from realizing his fairness cheaply with broadways (AK, KJ, JT) and backdoor flush attracts, forcing them to fold typically. Particularly, 9♦8♥ ought to evenly break up actions between elevating and calling.
The Flip
The flip introduced the 6♠, which made Evan a straight. Evan checked once more to Zeb (which was the right play), who continued betting for round three quarters pot, or £175, and Evan referred to as.
Zeb realized shortly that the board may run out ugly in some ways on the river and appropriately sized up the flip to get worth whereas forward, which additionally places quite a lot of strain on Evan’s potential open-ended straight attracts like T8s or A8s. Right here, we see the solver prefers utilizing the bigger guess dimension with all fingers that guess, though sizing smaller wouldn’t be a right away mistake.
For a similar causes that Zeb must pile cash within the pot, Evan may also want to lift all-in, primarily with straights and a few units for worth. Units can name extra typically than elevating, as they’ll typically cooler flushes on spade rivers, a capability that straights don’t have. So it’s finest to get it in earlier than we lose worth in opposition to a queen on dangerous rivers.
The River
We noticed a 6♦ roll off on the river, which promoted units to full homes. Evan confronted an all-in for £690, which was round 100% of the pot and all Zeb’s remaining chips.
There’s nothing improper with Zeb going all-in with QQ on the river. Quite the opposite, it’s the right dimension for Zeb’s general worth vary, akin to AQ+.
Dealing with an all-in on the river in Evan’s sneakers, nonetheless, the solver would by no means fold a straight as this may end in an EV lack of round 49.4bb or, in different phrases, leaving 494 £ on the desk.
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Conclusion
Because the commentators shortly identified, such performs wouldn’t occur on-line as a result of there’s a excessive likelihood that Evan had some stay inform on Zeb, which led him to fold his nutted hand appropriately.
Whereas Zeb performed the hand nearly completely, Evan bought closely out of line by elevating and calling the 3-bet preflop with a trash hand. As for postflop, folding the straight by the river was both an extremely correct inform or an entire catastrophe; you resolve!
Hand evaluation offered by Sotos in collaboration with GTO Wizard
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